JIM HARBAUGH, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Thearon W. Henderson)
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons -- Sunday, January 20 -- 3:00pm -- With the 49ers rich postseason history it seems odd to think that the Falcons have played in a Super Bowl more recently. The last time San Francisco participated in football's main event was in 1995 for the 1994 season. They were led by Steve Young, Jerry Rice and former Falcon, Deion Sanders. That was 18 seasons ago. In the 13 years prior to that, the Niners were in the Super Bowl 4 times - and of course, won them all. Long story short, they're due. I expect San Francisco to win this game...and the reason is simple: coaching. Most people would agree that Mike McCarthy is a pretty decent coach. The Packers have had as much success as any team in the last 5 years. They've won a Super Bowl and are consistently in the playoffs. That said, Mike McCarthy got SMOKED by Jim Harbaugh last week. Harbaugh coached to win that game in every way, starting with his decision to start Kaepernick 10 weeks ago. He built an offensive package that allowed his quarterback to throw for 263 yards, run for 181, and literally, never get touched. Of course, players play. If Matt Ryan can have a full game the way he played quarters 1, 2, 3 and the final 30 seconds of quarter 4, the Falcons could pull this out. They are 8-2 this year in games decided by 7 points or less. I also don't want to underestimate the Georgia Dome crowd. The fans could soak in the "home-underdog" thing and really bring it. We saw the 49ers struggle in a similar environment a few weeks ago in Seattle. Of course, the Niners have players too. San Fran's front seven only allows 3.7 yards per rush, compared to Seattle who gives up 4.5. Nothing against the games Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers had Saturday - both showed a burst that wasn't there most of the season - but I'd be surprised if it continued to that degree against Justin Smith and Patrick Willis. On the offensive side, Kaepernick proved last week that the pressure of his first playoff game, multiplied by a pick-six in the opening minutes, wasn't over his head. He also demonstrated the type of quarterback play that's killed the Falcons all year. Cam Newton had two great games passing and running against the Atlanta defense and Russell Wilson had the same success last week after Carroll took the gloves off. It turned out to be too late. Harbaugh won't wait as long. Like I said earlier, I look at the coaching match-up here. Mike Smith is no Jim Harbaugh. He's not even Mike McCarthy. San Francisco, 38 - Atlanta, 27
NaVORRO BOWMAN & PATRICK WILLIS, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Kirby Lee/US Presswire)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots -- Sunday, January 20 -- 6:30pm -- Here are a bunch of little numbers that have a lot of big meaning: The Patriots have won 3 AFC Championship home games in the Brady Era. The Ravens are the number 4 seed in the playoffs this year and number 4 seeds are 6-1 all-time in conference championship games (including a win by the Ravens in 2000). The Patriots offense averages 6 yards per play when Rob Gronkowski is playing and a little over 5 when he's not. What does all this mean? I'm not sure yet. Lets look at some 2-digit numbers. Baltimore is one of the oldest teams in the league and just played a 77 minute game in 13 degree weather (that temperature was recorded at kick-off and was surely lower by game's end). In 52 dropbacks last week, New England only sacked Matt Schaub once. Against the Broncos, the Ravens scored touchdowns on plays of 59, 32 and 70. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots defense has improved from allowing 46% completion percentage on passes over 20 yards early this year, to 32% completion percentage in the 2nd half of the year. I'm still up in the air. How about less numbers and more words. John Harbaugh has out-coached his first two playoff opponents in impressive fashion. In game number one, his aging team beat an inspired group of young upstarts who came in on a serious roll. In game two, he figured out a way to capitalize on big plays, minimize the big plays against and beat the conference's #1 seed on the road. Unfortunately for him, his biggest challenge is still in front of him. If the Ravens continue to play smart football and execute timely plays, they can win in Foxboro. The key word being "if". I think the game will be close. Maybe not 2011 close, but close. I'm just not sure the Ravens defense will be able to hold up over 60 minutes after just playing 77 and while trying to defend the New England no-huddle offense. Welker had a big game against them earlier in the year and that was with Lardarius Webb playing (he's since been lost with an ACL tear). Another big one may lie ahead. In the end, I'll go back to my first single-digit number and the reference behind it. Tom Brady is 3-0 in home AFC Championship games. Until he's 3-1, I'm not betting against him. Plus, look at those eyes. Love! <3 New England, 30 - Baltimore, 24
TOM BRADY, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Elise Amendola/Associated Press)
Last week: 1-3
Playoffs: 4-4
