The Super Bowl: 2 Weeks of Build-Up, 4 Hours of Festivities, 11 Minutes of Football

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers -- Sunday, February 3 -- 6:30pm -- How great is Super Bowl week? There were the obvious headlines: The Harbowl, Kaepernick vs Smith, Flacco vs Elite Quarterback Status. But then there were the unforeseen stories: Deer Antler Spray (I'm still not exactly sure what this is), Randy Moss as the best receiver ever (which actually might not be as crazy as it sounds), New Orleans as a great host city (oh wait, that's not a surprise at all). Finally, after a week(s) of build-up, 110 million Americans are about to watch 4 hours of commercials with 11 minutes of actual football mixed in. Gotta love it! So who's going to win? Here are the 5 things I believe will decide the outcome:

1. Joe Flacco's downfield throws -- If you thought Flacco's success on deep throws was just because Champ Bailey got toasted by Torrey Smith once or twice, you're wrong. He's literally hitting 50% of those throws in the playoffs (12 for 24) and has 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. The Niners play a lot of one-on-one coverages on the outside and if Flacco stays on a 50% pace he could burn them.

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JOE FLACCO, BALTIMORE RAVENS  (Getty Images)

2. Aldon Smith -- Like I said above, the Ravens have been extremely successful with deep passes the last 4 weeks (and all year, really). So to counteract that success, Aldon Smith will need to be the force he was for the first two-thirds of the season. I've noted in other posts how Smith has been much less of a factor since Week 14 and is reliant on the other Smith (Justin) to help him get to the quarterback. If Justin plays well, that means Aldon plays well, and, ultimately, means Flacco might be in trouble.

3. The mystique of New Orleans -- The Super Bowl has been played in New Orleans 9 times. Tomorrow will be the 10th. In the 9 prior, the favorite has won 6 times and every game except one (New England vs St. Louis) has been decided by 10 or more points. Look at some of these scores: 35-21 (1997), 55-10 (1990), 46-10 (1986), 27-10 (1981), 27-10 (1978), 24-3 (1972). So what does this mean? Well, it probably means absolutely nothing. But if you believe in "outside forces" (like I sort of do), it means one team will completely dominate and the other will only score 10 points.

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4. Baltimore's edge rushers -- Paul Kruger and Terrell Suggs will be the most important Ravens players on the field, except for Joe Flacco. Kruger and Suggs have the task of containing Colin Kaepernick when the Niners run the read option and knowing when to rush him and when not to. This is something that Clay Matthews - one of the premier edge rushers in the league - could not figure out. Yes, Matthews did register a sack, but he was completely ineffective when trying to defend the pistol offense. Kruger and Suggs need to be much, much better if the Ravens hope to slow the Niners down.

5. The one and only, Colin Kaepernick -- There's not much more to say about this cat that hasn't been said already. He's propelled himself into the Luck-RGIII-Wilson-Newton range as the group of quarterbacks poised to take over after the Brady-Manning-Brees Era (with the Eli-Rogers-Ryan-Roethlisberger Era lingering in between). So far he's proved that the pressure of throwing a pick-6 on the opening drive of his first playoff game wasn't too much for him. Then he proved that being down 17 points in the conference championship, on the road, wasn't too much for him. I don't think the Super Bowl will be too much either.

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COLIN KAEPERNICK, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS  (Harry How/Getty Images)

It pains me to actually make a pick for two reasons: first, I like both of these teams and would be happy to see either of them win, and second, it means a great season is coming to an end. To ease the pain I'm going on a shopping spree for lots of new shoes! But if I must, I must. The 49ers are great on both sides of the line, are run by - in my opinion - the best (and most handsome) coach in the league, and have a transcendent player at quarterback. That said, if Flacco can connect with Torrey Smith deep and the Ravens defense gets a few bounces, they can win this game. In the end, I just don't have enough faith that those things will happen.  San Francisco, 31 - Baltimore, 24

Last week: 1-1

Playoffs: 5-5

Divisional Round Picks: Kaepernick, Rodgers and a Women's Suit Coat

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos -- Saturday, January 12 -- 4:30pm -- After starting the season 2-3, the Broncos finished 11-0. That said, the teams they played during that stretch weren't exactly the '85 Bears. The combined record of their Week 6 through Week 17 opponents was 55-73. So one could make a case that their 13-3 record was slightly misleading. One could also make the case they found their stride around the bye week and never looked back. I'm going with the latter. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Denver had the 8th best DVOA since 1991. If you're unfamiliar with these analytics, DVOA stands for "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average," and it essentially breaks down every play of every game while measuring a team's total performance (more to come on DVOA later in the picks). On the other side, was I the only one who thought Indy should have beaten Baltimore? They drove the ball well on the Ravens defense most of the day, but just couldn't finish. Offensively, the Ravens key play was a jump ball that Boldin wrestled away in the end zone while setting a franchise record for receiving. I can't imagine this happening again, especially since Denver's pass defense was 3rd in the league. Unlike Luck, Manning should be able to convert red zone opportunities with Thomas (10 TD's) and Decker (13 TD's). I also think Miller and Dumervil will control the edges against a Baltimore offensive line that just figured out who should be starting in what positions last week. Happy trails, Ray Lewis. I'm sure we'll see you arguing with Skip Bayless on First Take in a couple days.  Denver, 28 - Baltimore, 13

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -- Saturday, January 12 -- 8:00pm -- This is the hardest game to pick of the week, even though one team has a sure thing Hall of Fame quarterback and the other has a guy with 8 starts. That said, this game is exactly why Kaepernick is the starter. Alex Smith managed games. Kaepernick can change them. I think it will come down to the 49ers pass rush. Justin Smith is playing, but apparently is not close to 100%. With Smith on the field, opposing QB's have a 73.5 quarterback rating, compared with a 93 when he isn't playing. Aldon Smith, who got to Week 14 with 19.5 sacks, only has 9 tackles and 0 sacks since. These two players are the key. If San Fran's defensive line can get to Rodgers and cause a few turnovers, that will lessen the pressure on Kaepernick and the Niners can win. If not, Green Bay's experience and HOF quarterback will move on. Major side note: It looks like Aaron Rodgers is wearing a women's suit coat in his latest "discount double-check" commercials. Next time it's on (and you know it will be) look closely. His stylist should be fired. Sorry...back to picks...  Green Bay, 27 - San Francisco, 26

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons -- Sunday, January 13 -- 1:00pm -- If you thought Denver's #8 ranking in DVOA was impressive, try Seattle's #6. The only teams Football Outsiders has rated higher since 1991 are the '95 49ers, '96 Packers, '10 Patriots, '07 Patriots and '91 Redskins. And again, if you're not familiar, DVOA essentially breaks down a team's entire season play by play, comparing success on each play to league average. Can you tell I'm on the Seahawks train yet? If not, here's some more info. The Falcons are not good against mobile quarterbacks. In their two games against Cam Newton they gave up an average of 251 passing yards and 101 rushing yards. If form holds, expect Russell Wilson to have a big game...then again, when's the last time Wilson didn't have a big game? Plus, contrary to popular belief, the Falcons actually have better road numbers than home numbers this season. On average they score 3 more points on the road, Matt Ryan completes 7% more of his passes and he threw 10 more touchdowns. Now would the Falcons rather play this game in Seattle? Of course not - but statistically this year's offense is more efficient away from the Georgia Dome than in it. Seattle could of folded last week after going down 14-0, but they kept their cool and battled back. Now they have a come-from-behind road playoff win under their belt and are playing a team under enormous pressure.  Seattle - 28, Atlanta, 17

Houston Texans at New England Patriots -- Sunday, January 13 -- 4:30pm -- It's hard to picture the Texans winning this game. They got handled in Foxboro a month ago, and even though I made their case last week, they were not especially impressive beating Cincinnati. They have question after question going into this one: Will J.J. Watt be neutralized by Brady's quick passes and pocket presence? Can Houston's dead last special teams make a game changing play? Can the defense contain the high powered spread offense (think Green Bay in Week 6 and the previously mentioned Week 14 New England game)? How will the average pass defense and make shift linebacker unit hold up against Gronk and Hernandez (who have only been on the field together 6 times all year)? Meanwhile, the Patriots are the Patriots.  New England - 34, Houston - 20

Last week: 3-1

Wild Card Weekend: Two Stay, Two Go

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans -- Saturday, January 5 -- 4:30pm -- Just like last year's playoffs, Cincy travels to Houston and plays on Saturday...and that's about where the comparisons end. Last year the Bengals had a rookie QB at the helm and seemed happy to sneak in. This year they've won 7 of their last 8, with the defense giving up more than 17 points only once during that stretch (their one loss was to Dallas, 20-19). On the other side, Houston is struggling. Last year T.J. Yates was under center during this game. Now it's Matt Schaub. At this moment, I'm not sure who Texans fans would prefer. For all of those reasons, Cincy is the trendy upset pick this week - and that's exactly why I'm taking Houston. If too many people are saying it, they're bound to jinx it. Plus, I still believe in what the Texans did from week 1 through 13 and I'm sure they do too. If a little of the "now we're the underdog" mentality sneaks in, even better. Extra motivation never hurts. Remember when the Saints went 13-0 a few years ago, only to finish 13-3 and limp into the playoffs? Yup...me too. I also remember them winning the Super Bowl 4 weeks later. I'm not going that far yet, but the lesson learned from the Saints is to judge the whole year, not just games 14, 15 and 16.  Houston, 31 - Cincinnati, 20

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -- Saturday, January 5 -- 8:00pm -- Another rematch in game two, but this one is a little more recent (as in 6 days ago). The Vikings pulled off a nice win at home last week, with the key word being "home". The crowd was sparked by the win and you're in situation, plus the obvious emotion that went into Peterson chasing the rushing record. None of these things will be on Minnesota's side Saturday. Rodgers is too good and Lambeau is too tough. Even if Peterson puts up his 2012 average against the Packers (204.5 yards - yikes!), it won't be enough. Plus, I'm sticking with my "never bet on Christian Ponder in his first playoff game and oh by the way it's at Lambeau" theory (see my Wild Card Weekend fantasy picks).  Green Bay, 34 - Minnesota, 10

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens -- Sunday, January 6 -- 1:00pm -- The Colts are clearly the best story of the season: Chuckstrong, Andrew Luck, 2-14. It's been fun to track and emotional to watch. Not to mention, they just played their best game of the season in week 17. Conversely, the Ravens have been an enigma. They were lackluster in December, the defense isn't what it used to be, Flacco has been wacko, and it took a 4th and 29 conversion to keep them from going 1-5 since Thanksgiving. However, every stat says the Colts just aren't that good. Most of their wins came against not-so-great teams by 7 points or less. They were minus-12 in takeaway differential and Luck is still a rookie who had the same amount of INT's as Mark Sanchez (18). Add in the Ray Lewis farewell tour and the Ravens may have an edge. Clearly I'm back and forth here, so I'm going with what would be the most fun - a head coach battling back from leukemia, leading his overachieving team and budding superstar quarterback to a win over the aging bad guys...culminating in said team traveling to Denver to play the conference #1 seed who is now led by the franchises all-time greatest player.  Indianapolis, 28 - Baltimore, 25

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins -- Sunday, January 6 -- 4:30pm -- On paper this is the best game of the bunch. Face of the Franchise Rookie Quarterback vs. Face of the Franchise Rookie Quarterback. In almost every way these teams are similar - the aforementioned rookie QB who makes plays with his arm and feet, powerful running games, strong against the run. There is, however, one key difference and it very well may swing the game: pass defense. Seattle is 6th in the league, Washington is 30th. If you go by that ranking, this simply gives Russell Wilson and Seattle more opportunities to make plays. RGIII will have less. Plus, if RGIII is still 75% and not 100% (like he clearly was against Dallas) it'll be that much harder. Hopefully they save the best game of the week for last.   Seattle, 17 - Washington, 13