Divisional Round Picks: Kaepernick, Rodgers and a Women's Suit Coat

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos -- Saturday, January 12 -- 4:30pm -- After starting the season 2-3, the Broncos finished 11-0. That said, the teams they played during that stretch weren't exactly the '85 Bears. The combined record of their Week 6 through Week 17 opponents was 55-73. So one could make a case that their 13-3 record was slightly misleading. One could also make the case they found their stride around the bye week and never looked back. I'm going with the latter. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Denver had the 8th best DVOA since 1991. If you're unfamiliar with these analytics, DVOA stands for "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average," and it essentially breaks down every play of every game while measuring a team's total performance (more to come on DVOA later in the picks). On the other side, was I the only one who thought Indy should have beaten Baltimore? They drove the ball well on the Ravens defense most of the day, but just couldn't finish. Offensively, the Ravens key play was a jump ball that Boldin wrestled away in the end zone while setting a franchise record for receiving. I can't imagine this happening again, especially since Denver's pass defense was 3rd in the league. Unlike Luck, Manning should be able to convert red zone opportunities with Thomas (10 TD's) and Decker (13 TD's). I also think Miller and Dumervil will control the edges against a Baltimore offensive line that just figured out who should be starting in what positions last week. Happy trails, Ray Lewis. I'm sure we'll see you arguing with Skip Bayless on First Take in a couple days.  Denver, 28 - Baltimore, 13

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -- Saturday, January 12 -- 8:00pm -- This is the hardest game to pick of the week, even though one team has a sure thing Hall of Fame quarterback and the other has a guy with 8 starts. That said, this game is exactly why Kaepernick is the starter. Alex Smith managed games. Kaepernick can change them. I think it will come down to the 49ers pass rush. Justin Smith is playing, but apparently is not close to 100%. With Smith on the field, opposing QB's have a 73.5 quarterback rating, compared with a 93 when he isn't playing. Aldon Smith, who got to Week 14 with 19.5 sacks, only has 9 tackles and 0 sacks since. These two players are the key. If San Fran's defensive line can get to Rodgers and cause a few turnovers, that will lessen the pressure on Kaepernick and the Niners can win. If not, Green Bay's experience and HOF quarterback will move on. Major side note: It looks like Aaron Rodgers is wearing a women's suit coat in his latest "discount double-check" commercials. Next time it's on (and you know it will be) look closely. His stylist should be fired. Sorry...back to picks...  Green Bay, 27 - San Francisco, 26

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons -- Sunday, January 13 -- 1:00pm -- If you thought Denver's #8 ranking in DVOA was impressive, try Seattle's #6. The only teams Football Outsiders has rated higher since 1991 are the '95 49ers, '96 Packers, '10 Patriots, '07 Patriots and '91 Redskins. And again, if you're not familiar, DVOA essentially breaks down a team's entire season play by play, comparing success on each play to league average. Can you tell I'm on the Seahawks train yet? If not, here's some more info. The Falcons are not good against mobile quarterbacks. In their two games against Cam Newton they gave up an average of 251 passing yards and 101 rushing yards. If form holds, expect Russell Wilson to have a big game...then again, when's the last time Wilson didn't have a big game? Plus, contrary to popular belief, the Falcons actually have better road numbers than home numbers this season. On average they score 3 more points on the road, Matt Ryan completes 7% more of his passes and he threw 10 more touchdowns. Now would the Falcons rather play this game in Seattle? Of course not - but statistically this year's offense is more efficient away from the Georgia Dome than in it. Seattle could of folded last week after going down 14-0, but they kept their cool and battled back. Now they have a come-from-behind road playoff win under their belt and are playing a team under enormous pressure.  Seattle - 28, Atlanta, 17

Houston Texans at New England Patriots -- Sunday, January 13 -- 4:30pm -- It's hard to picture the Texans winning this game. They got handled in Foxboro a month ago, and even though I made their case last week, they were not especially impressive beating Cincinnati. They have question after question going into this one: Will J.J. Watt be neutralized by Brady's quick passes and pocket presence? Can Houston's dead last special teams make a game changing play? Can the defense contain the high powered spread offense (think Green Bay in Week 6 and the previously mentioned Week 14 New England game)? How will the average pass defense and make shift linebacker unit hold up against Gronk and Hernandez (who have only been on the field together 6 times all year)? Meanwhile, the Patriots are the Patriots.  New England - 34, Houston - 20

Last week: 3-1